The Northern Virginia Association of REALTORS® (NVAR), in collaboration with the Center for Regional Analysis at George Mason University (GMU-CRA), recently released their consensus forecast for the region's housing market in 2024. Let's delve into the comprehensive outlook that covers residential and commercial real estate, economic indicators, and localized predictions for specific jurisdictions.
Economic Overview: As we enter 2024, the real estate market, both residential and commercial, is yet to establish a post-pandemic "new" normal. Despite the recent encouraging inflation numbers, concerns arose as interest rates experienced fluctuations, prompting hopes for stabilization. While still generating jobs, the economy shows signs of potential challenges, including rising consumer debt, hiring freezes, and inflationary pressures. The Federal Reserve's commitment to target inflation rates further complicates the outlook, with some analysts cautiously considering the possibility of a recession.
Residential Real Estate Trends: Despite rising mortgage rates, home values in the Northern Virginia region continue to appreciate, primarily due to persistently low inventories. The lack of available homes for sale remains a significant challenge, influenced in part by budgetary indecisions in the House of Representatives and the prevalence of Continuing Resolutions. While overall sales activity is anticipated to decline in 2024, key factors such as demand outpacing housing supply contribute to price stability.
Regional Dynamics and Migration Patterns: The normalization of hybrid work models is expanding the effective geographic scope of the Northern Virginia labor/housing market. Intra-regional migration patterns reveal that the region is attracting workers from neighboring areas. Consequently, more real estate professionals are extending their business into previously overlooked jurisdictions like Loudoun, Prince William, and Stafford counties.
Localized Forecasts:
Fairfax County Real Estate Overview for 2024:
Single-Family Homes:
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Price Trends:
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In December 2024, the average price for single-family homes will be $899,795, with a median price of $935,930 in June.
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Prices show a positive trend with a year-over-year increase of 3.5%.
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Sales Activity:
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Throughout 2024, there are projected to be 4,949 single-family homes sold, with a peak month of June recording 641 sales.
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The year-over-year change in sales from 2023 to 2024 indicates a decrease of 9.9%.
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Inventory Dynamics:
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On average, 426 single-family homes are projected to be available on the market at month-end.
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June should witness the peak inventory at 549 homes, showcasing a year-over-year decrease of 20.5%.
Townhomes:
- Price Trends:
- Townhome prices in December 2024 are projected to average $619,820, with a median price of $642,142 in June.
- The market is estimated to make a positive price trend with a year-over-year increase of 4.4%.
- Sales Activity:
- In 2024, 2,870 townhomes are projected to be sold, and the peak month of June should see around 301 sales.
- The year-over-year change in sales from 2023 to 2024 indicates a slight decrease of 2.4%.
- Inventory Dynamics:
- On average, 123 townhomes should be available on the market at month-end.
- September may have the peak inventory at 162 townhomes, showcasing a year-over-year decrease of 25.5%.
Condos:
- Price Trends:
- Condo prices in December 2024 will average around $339,091, with a median price of $358,518 in November.
- The market shows a modest year-over-year increase of 0.1%.
- Sales Activity:
- In 2024, 2,231 condos are projected to be sold, and the peak month of June recorded 221 sales.
- The year-over-year change in sales from 2023 to 2024 indicates a decrease of 10.9%.
- Inventory Dynamics:
- On average, 154 condos should be available on the market at month-end.
- September may witness the peak inventory at 178 condos, showcasing a year-over-year decrease of 11.2%.
More information can be found directly from NVAR's report and their website (
NVAR).
